Take It to the Bank: Garrett Kerman’s UFC Fight Night 104 Bets to Make

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By Garrett Kerman

We are back with another “Take It To The Bank” segment here on The MMA Takeover. We are on the brink of Superbowl Sunday but before we get there we have an exciting Saturday night full of fights worth watching. We have the anticipated return of “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung taking on featherweight contender Dennis “The Menace” Bermudez (Honorable Mention). We can’t forget about the other fighters on the card likes Alexa Grasso (#7) taking on Felice Herrig, Ovince Saint Preux (#8) taking on UFC newcomer Volkan Oezdemir and Jessica Andrade (#8) taking on Angela Hill (#10). Starting this week moving forward I will be listing my confident, underdog and value plays on the card. Let’s get right down to the action.

Confident Plays

These are the plays that I would place my max wager on. With smart bankroll management place your max wager on however many of these plays as you choose.

Niko Price -125
Niko Price is taking on Alex Morono on short notice after just making his debut a month ago at UFC 207 where he submitted Brandon Thatch in the first round. Price is a relentless grappler who showed in his debut that he will not give up until his opponent is on the ground. That would be the weakness of Price’s opponent Alex Morono. Morono is a striker that loves to throw wild punches like a spinning back fist and wild round house kicks. A wild striker like Morono is susceptible to takedowns if he doesn’t land those strikes. Price will take advantage of those opportunities and bring Morono down to the mat and ending him before the fight goes to a decision.

Tecia Torres by Decision -160
Tecia Torres (#9) takes on fellow The Ultimate Fighter season 20 contestant Bec Rawlings. Torres and Rawlings fought on the show with Torres coming out with the decision victory. I predict that the same exact outcome with happen in this one. After going back and reviewing the fight Torres was too fast for Rawlings, using her movement to move seamlessly in and out with flawless combinations. Rawlings is one to push the pace but while pushing the pace is susceptible to quick strikes due to Torres’ movement. This fight should be a replica of the fight we seen on The Ultimate Fighter a back and forth brawl between these two women with Torres edging out Rawlings in strikes and significant strikes landed which give Torres the win by unanimous decision.

Jessica Andrade wins Inside Distance -114
Jessica Andrade takes on former Ultimate Fighter contestant Angela Hill in which looks like to be the biggest lopsided fight on the card. Andrade is the biggest favorite on the night for good reason. Andrade is coming off two dominate wins over Joanne Calderwood and Jessica Penne both inside distance. On the other side you have Angela Hill who’s last two fights in the UFC was back to back losses against Rose Namajunas (#6) and Tecia Torres. Hill is going to have her hands full with the pressure, speed and strength of Andrade. I don’t see Andrade having any problem with pressuring Hill up against the cage, taking her down and then submitting her rather quickly.

Underdog Plays

These are my upsets on the night. These are plays that you don’t break your bank on. I would rate these plays as 2 unit plays. For those of who may not know what a “unit” is. A unit in sports betting is your average bet, if your average bet is $100 than a 2 unit play would be $200. With that said here are my upsets on the night.

Felice Herrig +280
I am a strong believer that Herrig can give Alexa Grasso her first career loss in her MMA career. Felice is coming off arguably her most impressive win in her career submitting Kailin Curran in the 1st round. She is going to take the momentum and really give Grasso some trouble. Herrig at the weigh-ins looked like she is in the best shape of her life while Grasso had a hard time making weight. The weight cut for Grasso might hurt her endurance in this one. If Herrig is able to push the pace, using her jab and body kicks then look for the takedown to grind out Grasso softening her up and ending her by submission.

Ricardo Ramos +130
Top prospect Ricardo Ramos takes on Michinori Tanaka in his anticipated debut. Most don’t know about Ramos but those who do are excited to watch his debut. He is a very well rounded fighter that can knock you out with a flurry of punches and kicks or take you to the ground and submit you with a rear naked choke. Tanaka is going to want to keep this fight standing as that is his only way of winning this fight. If this fight goes to the ground Ramos can finish Tanaka from anywhere on the mat. Las Vegas sportsbooks like to give the UFC newcomers dog money and I will take it here in a golden spot to make some good money.

Value Plays
These are what I like to call my value plays on the night. The reason why they are called value plays is because you get the bank for your buck deal. I would throw ½ a unit or even a ¼ unit on these plays; you can even parlay them together for a something small and end up winning big. Just be smart when wagering on these plays as these are not my most confident plays but those that I do believe can hit. MMA is unpredictable sometimes you just have to think outside of the box.

Ricardo Ramos by Submission +450
I love this play here because of how great of BJJ practitioner Ramos is. Ramos has won nine fights in his MMA career with six by submission. In Tanaka’s most recent loss to Rani Yahya he was almost choked out by an arm triangle in the first round. If Ramos gets the opportunity to take the fight to the mat I see him having no troubles submitting Tanaka.

Chris “Gritz” Gruetzemacher by Decision +475
This is a play that I just have a hunch about. Everyone I have talked to is not giving Gritz a shot against Skelly. I believe Gritz has all the right tools to overcome being the underdog in this one. In Skelly’s last loss to Darren Elkins he was pressured the entire fight, fighting while moving backwards instead of pushing the pace. That is exactly what Gritz likes to do, he likes to push the pace, be the aggressor and make his opponent fight with his back against the cage. Skelly is a world class grappler but the pressure of Gritz would make it hard for Skelly to just shoot for a takedown. If Gritz can keep this fight standing he will out strike Skelly on the feet landing him the decision victory.

That about wraps up my segment here on The MMA Takeover. Let’s start off this Superbowl weekend with a bang! We have a ton of plays here to make a ton of profit off of so that you can then roll your winnings over onto the Patriots. Another betting tip, take the New England Patriots -3 and thank me later. On that note, always remember to place wagers responsibly, don’t wager outside of your means and have good bankroll management. Also go follow me on Twitter @GarrettKMMA and don’t forget to listen to my weekly show on the Pure Evil MMA (@PureEvilMMA) podcast. Good luck and let’s have another profitable fight night.

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